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Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Debaters' started by surviving, Jan 28, 2020.

  1. DeadZedHead

    DeadZedHead Well-Known Member

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    Maybe


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  2. Morgotha

    Morgotha Well-Known Member

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    When he texted that there were only a dozen or so cases in the US, all of whom had been to China. He, and everyone else, thought that was true.
     
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  3. Morgotha

    Morgotha Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn't put *too* much stock in the vaccine to save people. Just because it's working now, there are whispers already of viruses that aren't protected by it, and who knows what tomorrow will bring?

    If you want to stay safe, keeping your distance from other people and minimizing time with strangers (meaning those you don't know the health status of) especially in a closed environment, wearing your mask and washing your hands (avoiding touching your face especially eyes and mouth) really are the best things you can do to avoid contracting it, IMO. Those are things that *everyone* who isn't institutionalized can do, vaccine or no!
     
    #3303 Morgotha, Feb 24, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2021
  4. PepperAnn

    PepperAnn Well-Known Member

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    he said it many times later over the past 9 months.
     
  5. PepperAnn

    PepperAnn Well-Known Member

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    Damn, I forgot I had that dancing puppy siggy, since I have been accessing on my phone for the past six months. I need to go give my IT guy a hug for unblocking this site. LOL
     
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  6. DeadZedHead

    DeadZedHead Well-Known Member

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    Thats what i was alluding to. The rampant spread lead to mutations. The vaccine isn’t as effective against the new California strain. Which is why slowing it down in the beginning was so important. The lockdowns while devastating economically, were intended to slow the spread.


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  7. Morgotha

    Morgotha Well-Known Member

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    Oh, I agree, when the rest of the world started seeing danger, Trump stuck with his position - a trait which may be good in some situations but isn't in this one. At the time of the text she posted, though, this was a reasonable position for someone to take, especially as he was trying to limit people coming in to the country from infected areas, etc.

    Remember, about the same time Trump was saying this, Pelosi was down in SF's Chinatown (without a mask) telling everyone to come on down with family and friends and have a good time! I doubt she would have done that if she (or by implication the government in general) thought Covid would kill a half a million Americans within a year.

    If she really wanted to knock Trump on his response, she should have tried to find him saying something like that in September, but not from last February.
     
    #3307 Morgotha, Feb 24, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2021
  8. Morgotha

    Morgotha Well-Known Member

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    O.k., I understand what you're saying, but for me? The only way to have stopped this from spreading would be to have stopped it at the border before it got a foothold in the U.S.. With the way our society is we were kind of doomed to have this run its course once it landed here, and it did so early on. (again, IMO, I don't claim to be an epidemiologist).

    What the lockdowns are good for is to *slow* the spread of infection, easing the burden on the hospital system and hopefully saving lives by having resources available to people who need them, but I don't think Western world-style lockdowns would stop the disease. Also, mutations are going to pop up, regardless of the rate of infection. It is kind of odd though, IMO, to see so *many* active mutations, as one thing coronaviruses have is a form of error-checking in their replication that most viruses don't. Odd. (and I don't mean that in a sinister way here, as much as I'm down on China's actions in general. In this case by "odd" I just mean "odd").
     
  9. Sharpie61

    Sharpie61 Well-Known Member

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    Wrong!
    Not “everyone”.
    By this time I knew my mom had died from covid, and that the virus was already in Florida. As did everyone in my family know. Some of them are still Trump supporters, btw.

    Again, not “everyone”.


    The truth is out there
     
  10. Morgotha

    Morgotha Well-Known Member

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    I'm sorry! I was just speaking as if this was a news story, I didn't mean it personally and I REALLY didn't mean to take away from the loss of your mom!:(:(:(
     
  11. DeadZedHead

    DeadZedHead Well-Known Member

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    There was really no way to STOP it. Every country on the planet had a plan to stop it from entering. None of them worked. Viruses mutate. They are trying to survive just like any other life form. They also have a very fast reproductive cycle. Meaning one infected person will have many “generations” of the virus inside of them before they fight it off. Every generation is an opportunity to mutate. Slowing down or reducing the number of infected people doesn’t prevent mutations, but letting it spread like wildfire definitely increases the chances of mutation. The entire reason we are dealing with this at all is because some mutation in a bat allowed it to jump to humans. Just like the common flu has infected enough people to create thousands? Tens of thousands of flu strains. Some worse than others. Politics aside, We reeeaaally needed to slow this down in the beginning. That didn’t happen. The mutations didn’t favor us. They rarely do. Ive never heard someone say “Hey Ebola mutated! Instead if killing you, it cures male pattern baldness”.


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  12. Sharpie61

    Sharpie61 Well-Known Member

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    I just wanted to point out the “everyone” thing.
    Donald says that when he’s got nothing to back up his statements. It bugs me when people say that.

    And thanks for the clarification about my mom.
    February is a rough month for me with deaths, and hers just added to it.


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  13. Morgotha

    Morgotha Well-Known Member

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    I agree that practically speaking given the amount of travel, etc., we were *unlikely* to stop it, and in the real world it likely was inevitable it likely would get everywhere.

    I disagree *completely* that whether it spreads quickly or slowly affects mutation rate. Whether people get sick one at a time or everyone got sick at once the rate of mutation would be the same. Would there be a better chance of isolating someone with a more dangerous mutation if the rate of infection was slower? An optimist who believed we could stop the virus might think so, a pessimist would not.

    The whole "we can't stop it" thing is why it's so important to find out if this was lab-made or not. If we KNEW it was natural, we'd just have to put up with it, but OTOH, if we KNOW it's made in a lab? That's something we could STOP from happening again.
     
  14. DeadZedHead

    DeadZedHead Well-Known Member

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    Spreading quickly directly effects the the ability to effectively quarantine. It directly effects the number of people infected. It directly effects the ability to detect new strains before THEY spread. Thats why viruses that are caught quickly have fewer mutations than viruses that get imbedded in communities. More infections equals more opportunities to mutate. Faster spread equals more infected equals more opportunities to mutate.


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  15. Morgotha

    Morgotha Well-Known Member

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    Say the rate of mutation is one serious, noticeable, mutation for every 5 million cases of the disease. If you infect 10 million people at once, 2 of them will on average end up with a noticeable mutation. If you infect 10 thousand people per day for 3 years, at the end of that time you'll likely only average 2 mutations per group. On paper is should be the same.

    How about if we view it as an interest-free one dollar loan? Whether you repay the loan all at once or at 10c per month, you'll still end up paying back a dollar.

    Hmm... in reality, it could even be WORSE to let something slowly infect people. For example, say something needs 3 separate mutations to be expressed, but the current strain of covid doesn't have any of them. If you infect everyone with covid today, the odds of having those three mutations made during replication of a single virus which passes them on to their progeny is very small. What about if you stretched time a bit and infected people slowly? Then people likely will NOT all be infected with this original strain, but people who are infected a year later will be infected by its viral children, some of whom won't be exactly like their parent, but will be mutated in some way. While it is very UNlikely one viral copy will get all three mutations and infect someone, what about a virus with ONE of the mutations? Much better odds! And if we give THAT virus time to replicate, the odds of it acquiring one of the other two mutations is better, and the odds of a doubly mutated progeny acquiring one more mutation is still better than trying to express multiple mutations at once.
     
  16. DeadZedHead

    DeadZedHead Well-Known Member

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    Thats based on the assumption that the same number of people will be infected in both instances. The would only happen if there were no vaccine created and no effective quarantine. It would have to be allowed it to continue to spread year after year. Even the most deadly viruses were quarantined into submission. Slowing the spread would have also lowered the total number infected as the vaccine would have been distributed with a lower initial total of infected. It wouldn’t spread at the same rate after mass vaccination that it does at no vaccination. Slow spread means fewer infected at the distributions beginning and slower spread means fewer infected at the distributions end. Fewer infected means fewer chances to mutate


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  17. surviving

    surviving Well-Known Member

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  18. DeadZedHead

    DeadZedHead Well-Known Member

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  19. surviving

    surviving Well-Known Member

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    No. John Hopkins has been acquiring their own data. They are the gold standard in COVID data. Most news organizations, government and researchers have quoted their data at some point. Their data is posted in real time so it is in front of any data reported by the CDC.
    Some experts says this professor's assessment is overly optimistic. Basically at the current moment he asserts that over half of the US population has some immunity to the coronavirus.
    The rates of COVID infections decreasing is a world wide phenomenon. Scientists arent quite sure why this is happening.
     
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  20. Morgotha

    Morgotha Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, everything's based on assumptions. It's not like we can set up a real world experiment and see which is better. I'm not arguing against attempting to slow the spread of infection, I'm just saying that if you have 10 million people infected, the rate of mutation shouldn't be faster if they are all infected at once vs. over time.
     
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