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Cataclysms

Discussion in 'Debaters' started by Morgotha, Dec 9, 2019.

  1. Morgotha

    Morgotha Well-Known Member

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    Actually I'd never heard of the climate change guy, so I looked him up. I *was* trying for a bit of humor, though. And don't worry about me quitting my day job, McD's wouldn't be the same without me!
     
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  2. Morgotha

    Morgotha Well-Known Member

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    You know what I find odd about climate change and fires? NASA says that over the past 20 years there has been a steady decrease in the number of big fires - about 25% less - because of changing agricultural habits in the 3rd world, but otoh, the fires that do burn are hotter because of climate change.

    Now if the atmosphere really HAS heated up by 0.8 degrees F since the 1970's, how does that translate into massive changes in the heat of a fire? It doesn't seem to make much sense that less than a degree difference in the air would make a big difference in a massive fire burning at 1500 degrees or so.

    Maybe someone smarter than I am can explain it. Does Jenny McCarthy have anything to say on the subject?
     
  3. purriwinkle

    purriwinkle Well-Known Member

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    From what I read, the Earth’s increasing temperature, even as small as 1 degree C, causes a chain of events that will continue to make the threat of wildfires increasingly dangerous. Here are some articles, that I think are rather balanced, that discuss this problem.

    https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/global-warming-fueling-increased-wildfire-risks

    https://phys.org/news/2018-08-ten-ways-climate-wildfires-worse.html

    https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/will-global-warming-produce-more-frequent-and-more-intense-wildfires
     
  4. Morgotha

    Morgotha Well-Known Member

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    I started the first article, and was bothered by this:

    "Wildfires in the western United States have been increasing in frequency and duration since the mid-1980s. Between 1986 and 2003, wildfires occurred nearly four times as often, burned more than six times the land area, and lasted almost five times as long when compared to the period between 1970 and 1986."

    They stopped reporting on data 17 years ago. Why? My suspicion would be that since that time fires have been decreasing - like NASA said. IOW, they aren't trying to use science to give you information, they are trying to give you biased information to shape your beliefs. I don't like that, *especially* from a scientist.

    Then they say, "Researchers project that moist, forested areas are the most likely to face greater threats from wildfires as conditions in those areas become drier and hotter."

    But in the first paragraph they said, "As the climate warms, moisture and precipitation levels are changing, with wet areas becoming wetter and dry areas becoming drier."

    So which is it? Are the wet areas going to get wetter, or drier? They seem to want it both ways.

    My other main thing about climate change is whether or not we can do anything about it. The world is still coming out of the "mini ice age" from the 1500's, right? If that's the case and the Earth is *supposed* to warm up, all our efforts to stop it will be like trying to hold back the tide. Are the people pushing "climate change" really smart enough to trust with destroying the country's economy? I'm not sure of that.
     
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  5. Jama

    Jama Well-Known Member

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    I'm not a "climate denier" or anything. I hate that term, btw, but I believe that mankind has an impact on our environment. Positive and/or negative. It's not like 7.5 billion people using energy the way we do has zero consequences.

    But I also look at the hysteria and the misleading claims put forth by so many who support the climate change narrative. All of the predictions that did not come to pass. All of the fear-mongering. Altering data and misleading people into believing that our situation is more desperate than it actually is. Leonardo DiCaprio and all of these entertainers championing for Mother Earth when a camera is pointed in their face, and then they fly off to Rome or France on a private jet. Al Gore buying carbon credits so he can continue to pollute.... but do so with a clear conscience. 15 years ago, activists predicted that over 2 dozen glaciers in Alaska would have completely melted by 2020... Now it's 2020 and all of them are still around and they have hardly receded.

    30 years ago, the environmentalists told us that paper bags were killing our forests!!! Use plastic bags because they can be REUSED!!! Now that script as flipped and we have to use paper bags because plastic bags are the DEVIL. Pick a goddamn lane, people!

    Is Miami going to be under water in 10 years as AOC claims? Where's the "scientific data" that supports the claim? When that doesn't happen, what is going to be the next scare tactic that is used?

    No wonder so many people are skeptical or are "climate deniers". There's a lot of good, honest people out there who do care, and they would care a lot more if they weren't being manipulated and guilt-tripped every time they used a plastic straw or ate a Ribeye.
     
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  6. purriwinkle

    purriwinkle Well-Known Member

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    I understand your confusion. All the articles, from different sources, have slightly different prognostications, but there seemed to be a central theme. Higher temperatures dry out the soil, trees and other vegetation making them tinder when naturally occurring or man made fires ignite them leading to bigger fires that last longer and destroy larger areas.

    The wet areas becoming wetter and the dry areas drier seemed some what contradictory alright so I tried to find out what was meant. Here's what I read:

    "With climate change, the water cycle is expected to undergo significant change. For example, a warmer climate causes more water to evaporate from both land and oceans; in turn, a warmer atmosphere can hold more water – roughly four percent more water for every 1ºF rise in temperature. Changes like this are expected to lead to specific, and in many cases negative, consequences. Some parts of the U.S. – in particular, the Northeast and Midwest – can expect increased precipitation and runoff, especially in winter and spring, leading to increased flooding. Other areas – notably the Southwest – can expect less precipitation, especially in the warm months, and longer, more severe droughts as storm tracks shift northward leaving arid areas increasingly dry.

    The form that precipitation takes is also subject to change in response to warming: climate projections for many regions of North America suggest less snow, overall, and more rain. In areas dependent on the gradual melting of snowpack to supply surface water through the warm months, this means lower flows and greater water stress in summer – a trend already in evidence in parts of the western U.S. While the effects of climate change on groundwater are not fully understood, rising water competition and stress at the surface are likely to drive greater use – and overuse – of this resource."

    I'm not sure that really explains it to a novice, like myself, but it seems like a solid recipe for a very unpleasant environment sometime in the (perhaps near) future.

    I don't believe scientists in general have a particular agenda and if they're convinced the data seems to be headed in a certain direction, I tend to believe they know what they're talking about. I think I'll take their word over your average John Q. Public who can't see beyond their own front yards but that's me.

    As regards your last paragraph, the Earth’s atmosphere may indeed be on a warming cycle naturally but mankind doesn’t need to exacerbate the process. Can we do anything about it? I know we were able to reverse ozone damage by banning CFCs but it took some time. Economies are always changing but I think we can adapt. Some industries will go by the wayside, always have, but new ones will take their place.
     
    #26 purriwinkle, Jan 11, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2020
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  7. tink

    tink Well-Known Member

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    That was true of Minnesota:

    http://www.startribune.com/even-by-minnesota-standards-2019-was-a-wild-weather-year/566657551/

    And we're on track already to break that record again this year.

    I drive over the bridge of the Mississippi every day, and that is just barely below flood stage even now - many roads close to the river had to be closed from Spring through most of the Summer due to flooding. It won't take much to flood again once things start melting and the rains start.
     
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  8. Lindigo

    Lindigo Well-Known Member

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    I hadn't realized the Mississippi ran the length of the U.S. :oops:
     
  9. PepperAnn

    PepperAnn Well-Known Member

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    Mmmmmmmm Ribeye.
     
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  10. purriwinkle

    purriwinkle Well-Known Member

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    I’m only going to say that I challenge your assertion that Alaskan glaciers have “hardly receded”. They may not be gone yet but they’re going.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    The Mendenhall glacier is thought to have retreated about a half mile (or 660 meters) in the last 20 years. Glacierchange.org shares a fascinating image of the glacier's terminus, documenting its visual retreat in just the last three years.
    THERESA SOLEY, Contributing Writer, Alaska Campgrounds
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    The pics from Exit Glacier are pretty revealing too. I’m sure there are many others. It’s been pretty well documented.
     
  11. purriwinkle

    purriwinkle Well-Known Member

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  12. Jama

    Jama Well-Known Member

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    There's over 600 glaciers in Alaska. I don't recall stating that ALL OF THEM were hardly receding. So maybe you're misunderstanding whatever you think my assertion was.

    In fact, there are several glaciers that are receding at a very slow rate (much slower than analysts had predicted from 20-30 years ago- which is the true essence of the point that I am making) and there are at least 8 glaciers that are currently increasing in size.

    https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-001-03/

    Now, I'm not sure if you've ever been to Alaska, but I have. Dozens of times. I've seen a lot of glaciers with my own two eyes because I've traveled ALL OVER THAT DAMN STATE because my parents are nuts and they think they are G-D tour guides!! lol

    I've visited Exit Glacier numerous times. They have wooden markers staked out along the trail as people make their way toward the glacier which indicate where the glacier was at certain periods in time. There's no question that this glacier has receded but there's a lot they've gotten wrong. They had to remove and re-post the signs for where they thought it would be almost every year since 2002.

    My mother has a picture of Mrs. Jama and I sitting on the edge of the glacier (in a section that is relatively safe for people to walk about). This pic was taken in 1995, and there's a sign that says that the glacier will continue to recede by 50 feet a year on average. Now while it has retreated and was retreating at that rate for a few years, it slowed down considerably since 2002. We visited Exit Glacier most recently back in 2016 and it looked like it maybe had retreated about the length of a football field (300 feet). About one-third of what their prediction was when I first visited.
     
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  13. purriwinkle

    purriwinkle Well-Known Member

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    Interesting. Your response made me look into the situation more closely. What I found, and that I didn’t know before, was that there are many types of glaciers. Going back to the National Snow & Ice Data Center article I previously cited, I went to “types” and was surprised there were so many. Exit is an example of a Valley Glacier while Hubbard is a Tidewater Glacier. Tidewater glaciers apparently are not sensitive to the climate while advancing and retreating, unlike others. So it’s complicated, lol, and that’s on me.

    But given the situation at large, despite some exceptions to the rule, the consensus of the scientific community is that the many glaciers that are receding at what is considered an alarming rate isn’t a good sign.

    I have traveled somewhat....Hawaii (three islands), Europe (five countries), Mexico (Yucatán peninsula & Cozumel), three Caribbean islands, parts of Eastern Canada and as many places as I can in the lower 48. Alaska has not been one of them to my dismay. I have been pushing to get there, for one because I wanted to see the glaciers before they disappeared. I’m happy to hear that I most likely will see some before that happens!

    *Glaciers are a topic that I’ve got to read more about.
     
    #33 purriwinkle, Jan 14, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020
  14. Stealth

    Stealth Well-Known Member

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    Scientific evidence > anecdotal observations

    It's like the people that see more yard signs and they think that means that particular candidate will win. It snowed one day in Washington D.C. and that clown Senator Inhofe brought a snowball into the Senate to "prove" that climate change was a farce.

    You see the same thing going on with the anti-vax people and now we're having previously contained diseases back on the rise.

    What's crazy though is that we should all want a cleaner environment and a healthier society. But everything has become so warped.
     
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  15. Morgotha

    Morgotha Well-Known Member

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    Thanks, that's a good post.

    There's actually a bonus about the warming air holding more water in the atmosphere. It was theorized that our coasts would be underwater if the earth heated up a bit but apparently not. A good amount of water will be transferred to the air.

    On decreasing carbon use to minimize man's impact on the environment, to me the best way to do this is to make it worth it for people to do so, not by being punitive. When it makes economic sense to buy an electric car, people will buy them, and we're starting to see that now. I don't think one can compare a nascent electric industry with a mature fossil fuel economy - for now. However, with time we'll switch over to "better" forms of energy just like we switched from burning wood, to coal, to fossil fuels. I would not wish the government to try and force this change by being punitive - I think it'll be less likely to be successful.
     
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  16. tink

    tink Well-Known Member

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    The reason why you're never bringing the coal industry back no matter what lies you tell coal miners is that virtually every coal-burning plant in the USA had already switched over to natural gas or other sources. They would have to pay MILLIONS to switch back.

    That was over before it started.

    However Trump has damaged the solar and wind industries through his policies, and it will take a long time to get that business back. Other countries will continue to develop and manufacture those energy sources and we will be left behind.
     
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  17. Morgotha

    Morgotha Well-Known Member

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    Here's something else to read, on the little ice age. Our glaciers are apparently still receding now, and what they describe as characteristic of an ice age - greater or lower precipitation, maybe temperature change, maybe not, etc. sounds a lot like what "climate change" people are saying. So... maybe the people in the 1970's weren't wrong, and maybe we're heading for another ice age and not a warming trend.
     
  18. Morgotha

    Morgotha Well-Known Member

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    How has Trump damaged the solar and wind industries?
     
  19. tink

    tink Well-Known Member

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  20. Morgotha

    Morgotha Well-Known Member

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    On wind, the only thing the government really stopped was an offshore plant at Martha's Vineyard. LOL, that sounds like a NIMBY issue to me. According to your article, overall the country will have 9% -- nine percent! -- of its energy coming from wind. Considering there weren't many windmills up 30 years ago that's a HUGE expansion! Trump hasn't hurt wind.

    On solar, China subsidized their panels and then dumped them on the US, which is why they were cheap - at the time. Buying something someone else makes in a new industry is a good way to NOT start up your own industry! Eh, tariffs aren't ever really a good thing, but if someone is dumping goods? Maybe it's all you can do.
     
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