I think this is partly why they took Daryl...They won't leave the family, and Maggie is still in need of a doctor...

 

I heard that the mid-season finale is called Exodus.

Maybe that is what happens; maybe a couple of main characters and the people of Alexandria try to run away.

 

If you recall how they barely made it post-Prison just wandering around and were super low on supplies and morale before Aaron found them, this would not be a good idea.

Wandering around aimlessly with no base of operations or stock of supplies is going to lead you inevitably into bad situations. Go to another state... fuel reserves are low and when you arrive there's a high probability of running into other hostile groups and/or giant walker hordes. A high probability of finding no supplies and a high probability of accidents in general.

Alexandria has water, power, walls and everything they need to sustain themselves, provided they kill all other threats in the immediate area... which they attempted, but it didn't work out.

So no, terrible idea IMO.

The tragedy for them is that the Prison was taken by a returning Governor. If not for that, they'd still be set up well in Georgia in that fortress.

 

Also, the Saviors are an enemy that are able to be overcome with proper action and planning. They outsize them in numbers and have weapons, but they have no heavy military equipment and in head on conflict the group has already taken out a 3rd of them roughly(something like that). The Saviors have proven to be inferior fighters to Rick's group in all instances of combat, even ones where they had the advantage such as the attack on the railroad. The Saviors are made up of ordinary assholes that have been surviving, not made up former Military people like Woodbury. And they don't have the heavy weapons Woodbury had.

The best course of action would be to go along with Negan's game for a while and then plan a strike(correctly this time, not a rush without intel) to take them out with assistance from your allied communities(Hilltop and any others).

 

I think they are watching them, and would know if someone tried to bail. I don't think the outcome would benefit the Alexandrians

 

They could try and run to a safe haven. To do that, they would need a few scouts to head out to another state far away and try and find a safe community that has supplies and shelter, with no other hostiles in the area. This could take a while and they would have to be very secretive about it, because if Negan found out, I wouldn't doubt he would slaughter everyone in ASZ if he could catch them before they left.

Their best bet is to stay put and give Negan his tribute for the time being while secretly working with The Hilltop Colony and The Kingdom to take out The Saviors.

 

But you're missing the fact that post-Terminus and killing Gareth's whacky group of crazies, they hunkered down in Father Gabriel's Church and reset. They went and got some supplies and they had plenty of small arms with them and several vehicles with enough fuel.

They stayed there searching for Beth and used it as their base of operation, while Abe, Eugene, Glenn, Maggie, Rosita went off temporarily on the fake Eugene mission.

They didn't just "scramble" without supplies.

Post-Grady Hospital they decided to go to Noah's place and found it destroyed and then wandered about aimless til Aaron found them at an all time low point after losing Tyreese. If not for Alexandria it's very possible they wouldn't have made it. Wandering around aimlessly in TWD world = bad idea.

The supplies will dwindle fast and out in the wild they're at constant risk for the issue's I've addressed - hordes, hostiles, accidents and so on.

Yes, but these are replenish-able working with the Hill Top and scavenging. Also, unfortunately they have a few less mouths to feed as well.

It's not a matter of Negan being a threat post-exodus from Alexandria and the general area, it's a matter of having shelter/base of operation and running out into possibly even worse situations. High probability of running into problems just as lethal as Negan, if not worse, just now without shelter, water and walls to protect from walkers.

You go 2 states... what then... what if you can find no more fuel... what if you run into a giant horde.... what if you run into a giant hostile community.... what if you find no supplies on the road....

Too many variables that can go bad rather than staying and planning a course of action to remove the Saviors. The benefit you have with the Saviors even though they are twisted and evil, is that they desire supplies and items more so than slaughter. Other groups like Woodbury and Terminus just want to kill you outright, you have some time to operate here and since you'll be providing them with stuff -- to get the best intel on how to destroy them.

Yes. Exactly.

The Saviors seemingly operate on psychological oppression and numbers advantages over other groups. Negan put up a great front here in trying to break Rick's will, because you know the Savior organization was threatened immensely in losing their outpost and likely a 3rd of their population when Rick's group raided them. That tells you that Rick's group is capable at fighting, tactics and is heavily armed and dangerous to them.

The Saviors that took our group hostage was likely the bulk of the remaining Saviors force.

Daryl ghosted 10-12 of them with the RPG.

They're very beatable. Woodbury was beaten due to the superiority of the Prison complex and it being hard to take. Woodbury vs. Alexandria with their heavy vehicles, heavy weapons and so on would have been a destruction for Alexandria.

The Saviors are a lot of bluff. They have manpower and weapons and gear and such, but the psychological aspects are what's keeping them in line.

Likewise if the Saviors operate primarily on other groups providing them with bounty, then that means there's even more groups pissed off with their situation with the Savior's and manpower you can accrue to stop them.

 

It's very high level psychological warfare. The amount of things Negan accomplished in breaking the morale of the group will be seen in the episodes to come, but they are many.

Maggie responded to it with fight and anger within her, the only one.

 

There's no safe place in the Zombie Apocalypse.

 

Agreed. These deaths shouldn't 'break' Rick and the crew. Everyone in that world is at risk of a nasty death every day. Sure it's brutal to see it happen that way, but once they get over the shock, they'll realise all they lost was two people. They still have weapons, a safe base, transport and time to plan. They also now have a significant amount of intel on the Saviours.

 

I think, Ionut's assessment of the Saviors is the right one. Their biggest advantage is their sheer number, but they are neither great fighters nor very loyal to each other. I guess, many people are with them because they don't see another chance to survive and most of them fear Negan. You could see that quite well in the Dwight-episode in season 6. I think, Negan's demonstration of sadistic power was not only meant for Rick and his group but for his own people as well.

So, their best option is not to flee but to gather and ally with other friendly groups to fight the Saviors in different ways. (And if I was in Daryl's shoes, I would try to flee or kill myself so the Saviors wouldn't have a leverage anymore...)

 

1...they have daryl
2...they probably have their scouts lurking about

 

The only way in which they could successfully flee would be if they stayed put for a few months in order to gather up resources for the road, see Maggie through the pregnancy and gain Negan's trust. Then they would have to be quick about it, so like they would literally have to pack everyone up into cars and go without stopping or turning back for a good distance. I do think fleeing is the best option but they need time.

 

What choice do they have really. You have Judith, a pregnant Maggie. Hitting the road is just gonna be dangerous. Plus Negan has Daryl and they aren't gonna just up and leave him behind. They will just bow to Negan...for a little while.

 

my wife asked this same question as soon as she saw the episode. I guess it comes down to how much you want to try to get revenge or just get the hell out of Dodge. Seeing as how broken they are right now, I'd probably try to retreat somewhere and make a plan. I wouldn't stay at Alexandria though.

 

Exodus...as in Movement of jah people?

 

I've pondered the same thing, but I don't think it would be a good move for a number of reasons. For starters, Daryl has been captured. They'd basically be abandoning him, and there's no way they'd stand for that. Daryl has saved all their asses any number of times. They don't leave family behind. I think this is a somewhat lesser point, but Maggie being pregnant adds another big complication. Hilltop has a doctor, which she needs.

Aside from those issues, I think it's pretty safe to assume that the ASZ is being watched by some of Negan's men now. If they tried to just leave, word would get back to Negan, and he'd probably mobilize a group to chase them down pretty quickly. Furthermore, they've been on the road and already damn near lost everything. The ASZ is basically what saved them. They'd be in a slightly better position leaving the ASZ than they were when they initially left Terminus, but shortly after leaving Terminus they were able to regroup and resupply, and they still almost didn't make it. Hit the road with a bunch of inexperienced people from the ASZ, and they're going to be in an even worse situation.

I think their best move is to play Negan's game for a while and network with the other communities that are under the control of the Saviors. We'll be introduced to the Kingdom pretty soon. We've already got an alliance with Hilltop. There could be even more communities that we'll be meeting soon. I think that the Saviors are a group who can talk the talk, but can't necessarily walk the walk. Every time it's come down to actual combat between Rick's group and the Saviors, the Saviors have had their asses handed to them. The bikers on the road got blown to hell because of a poor tactical choice (sending just one guy to the back of the truck with Daryl), the people on the tracks got defeated because of sloppiness and entirely inadequate attention to their surroundings, the people at the satellite station outpost got slaughtered because of completely lacking guard protocols. Point being...when it comes to combat, the Saviors come across as some amateurs who haven't really been through much. They rely on their numbers and a huge psychological element to maintain their power, and I think once it becomes apparent that they're hopelessly outclassed in combat, the group could fall fairly quickly, given the right tactics from Rick's group.