Battle Royale Forums

Welcome to Battle Royale Forums. Join us today and become part of the growing group of survivors.

University Studies Humans' Chances of Surviving Zombie Apocalypse

Discussion in 'Zombie Survival' started by fatbrett2, Oct 27, 2011.

  1. fatbrett2

    fatbrett2 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2011
    Messages:
    735
    Likes Received:
    0
    The link below is an actual, legitimate academic study performed by the University of Ottowa and Carleton University, and published in 2009. They aren't saying they think zombies are real, it was more of an exercise in predicting the spread of real infectious diseases. They thought zombies would be an extreme, and interesting, example of how rapidly a disease can become a global problem.

    They cite Max Brooks, George Romero, Simon Pegg (Shaun of the Dead), 28 Days Later, and Resident Evil. They use Brooks' rules, more or less, and assume that there is a short time between the bite and the time of the bitten person's death and reanimation (unless of course the person dies of their injuries sooner, like Amy having her jugular vein torn out and bleeding to death). The zombies are assumed to be slow and stupid, and they can be killed by massive brain trauma or decapitation.

    They charted two things - the population of "Susceptibles" (uninfected, living humans) and the population of "Zombies". Susceptibles who die of non-zombie related causes do not become zombies, unless they are infected before dying. All susceptibles killed by zombies do become zombies, as do all people attacked and infected by zombies before dying of other causes.

    They then charted these 2 figures in each of several possible scenarios.

    1) Basic Model - Conditions are as described above, with no organized response from gov't or military. All humans are eradicated very quickly. The same model was also run with a 24 hour latent period between the time of infection and the time of death/reanimation; this slightly delayed the total eradication of humans.

    2) Model with Quarantine - In this model, a partial quarantine is attempted. Only infected and zombies are put under quarantine, and once they are inside the quarantine zone, it is impossible to escape without being killed. Any zombies and infected who did NOT attempt to escape would NOT be destroyed, only isolated forever. However, large numbers of infected and zombies will never be caught and put in quarantine due to the resources, manpower, and time needed to do so. Again, this only manages to delay the total eradication of humans very slightly.

    3) Model with Treatment - This model assumes that a 'cure' for zombie-ism quickly becomes available, and can somehow return the zombie being cured to its original, human form. However, upon becoming human again, the cured person also becomes susceptible to infection again. In this model, humans were not completely eradicated, but would be reduced to a tiny fraction of our original population and totally outnumbered by zombies, who we will have to coexist with forever.

    4) Model with "Impulsive Eradication" - This basically means we try to kill as many zombies as possible in coordinated attacks as often as possible, whenever enough men and resources can be pooled to do so - and gathering the necessary men and material will be difficult or even impossible. In this model, humanity only survives if the attacks are sufficiently strong and frequent, and only if each new attack kills far more zombies than the last one did.


    They sum it up better than I can, so here is a quote from the "Discussion" section.

    "...These results assumed that the timescale of the outbreak was short, so that
    the natural birth and death rates could be ignored. If the timescale of the outbreak increases, then the result is the doomsday scenario: an outbreak of zombies will result in the collapse of civilisation, with every human infected, or dead. This is because human births and deaths will provide the undead with a limitless supply of new bodies to infect, resurrect and convert. Thus, if zombies arrive, we must act quickly and decisively to eradicate them before they eradicate us."


    And finally, here is the actual link to the report in PDF format.

    WHEN ZOMBIES ATTACK!: MATHEMATICAL
    MODELLING OF AN OUTBREAK OF ZOMBIE
    INFECTION
     
    #1 fatbrett2, Oct 27, 2011
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2011
  2. fatbrett2

    fatbrett2 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2011
    Messages:
    735
    Likes Received:
    0
    Credit to Philip Munz, Ioan Hudea, Joe Imad, & Robert J. Smith
    School of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton University
    Department of Mathematics and Faculty of Medicine, The University of Ottawa
     
  3. sithtemplar

    sithtemplar New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2011
    Messages:
    19
    Likes Received:
    0
    I've read this before, thanks for posting it here! :)
     
  4. Dimitrie Postma

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2012
    Messages:
    56
    Likes Received:
    1
    Wow, amazing ! Gonna look into it for sure.
     
  5. DalekSec

    DalekSec Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2012
    Messages:
    2,108
    Likes Received:
    2
    VERY COOL!!!!!!!!!!!

    I remember scenarios like this using "Alien Invaders" as part of game theory in my old military days.
     
  6. firstfooter

    firstfooter Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2012
    Messages:
    1,616
    Likes Received:
    11
    SMH ...now I know where that tax check went. The government only needs so many $300 toilet seats:zombies_confused:
     
  7. page

    page Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2012
    Messages:
    6,461
    Likes Received:
    83
    Impossible. We have wolverine.
     
  8. Morgotha

    Morgotha Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2012
    Messages:
    16,313
    Likes Received:
    1,301
    Maybe you could just withhold government intervention. After all, more dems are anti-gun than repubs, so the zombies would tend to get shot less in democratic areas, leaving a preponderance of repubs as survivors.
     
  9. 12Gauge

    12Gauge Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2012
    Messages:
    5,496
    Likes Received:
    21
    Hello?????
    We have .... Captain America!:Grin:
    *12*
     
  10. Morgotha

    Morgotha Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2012
    Messages:
    16,313
    Likes Received:
    1,301
    All it would take is a few disgruntled staff officers.

    General: "Mr. President, it seems that zombies are real, but we shouldn't send the Army to New York or Chicago yet, we don't want to start a panic. Let's have them reinforce their bases for now, then they'll be better able to help out later."

    Pres: sounds good, general, but you ARE sending the Army to protect Washington D.C., aren't you?

    Gen: Yes sir, we'll definitely protect the White House and the Pentagon...
     
  11. page

    page Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2012
    Messages:
    6,461
    Likes Received:
    83
    Well played, 12. Well played.
     
  12. DalekSec

    DalekSec Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2012
    Messages:
    2,108
    Likes Received:
    2
    Now wait...WAIT WAIT WAIT...

    Places like Chicago would only see hoards of zombies as new fodder for the voter rolls. *trollface*
     
  13. lolapaluuza

    lolapaluuza New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2020
    Messages:
    1
    Likes Received:
    0
    Damn, this is a cool dissertation topic! It is awesome. You can watch movies about zombie apocalypse and tell everyone that you are doing research. There are also many cool books or fan theories out there. Choose what you like! The dissertation editing services will help you with all other questions.
     

Share This Page