A1137 - Youve hit the nail pretty squarely on the head, yet you've STILL forgotten something (and not that its bad that you did, most people would have) not EVERY zombie is being created by bites - how many people die simply from a heart attack, cancer, a stroke, old age - each of THOSE deaths, totally unrelated to the walker attacks, would result in more walkers. And inevitably, those new walkers would bite, creating even more. There would be very little population left after a few weeks. VERY little. This would be an extinction level event, no questions asked.

 

He didn't forget the natural deaths, that was included in those numbers. Natural deaths plus the deaths from trauma(accidents).

Rick was just going by what he has seen and maybe being optimistic. Judging by what we've seen I definitely believe way more than half if the population has been wiped out.

 

I guess since he was talking to peope who had no clue what was going on, saying "half the population" was just an easy and quick way to convey that "things have really gone to hell out there."

 

great topic. personally, id guess 10-20% of the population is still alive. in america id say 10% tho. w/ the new rick its hard to tell if hes saying what he really believes or what he wants the other person to believe.

 

^ this!

 

I love the smell of napalm in the morning.

 

Well the problem with ZA's in visual media is trying to put enough bodies to show the devestation. So let's say Rick is right and only half of the population has died off or become a walker. That's 3.5 billion people gone, but they aren't really gone, their bodies are either continuing on as walkers or rotting somewhere (and that would be a lot of people to cremate/bury if survivors tried). Even in a relative smaller population like Atlanta (400,000+), we only see a few hundred walkers and a few bodies, which either implies more people survived (and maybe died) in the countryside or its just not really economical for a series to show so many zombies.

In terms of the 50% mentioned, it would be comparable to the Black Death. Some populations may have been reduced by 75%-80% during the Black Death while others were closer to 20%-30%. What we know of TWD TV Series is that whatever is happening is global, but that's pretty much it. We know Atlanta didn't make it (or at least whoever was there fled), but only have hearsay from other characters about whats going on elsewhere, which pretty much makes 50% a guess. Who knows, maybe Atlanta suffered a 90% population loss while Nebraska only suffered a 10% loss (which means we should go to Nebraska).

 

It's very difficult for anyone to walk on the seabed or under the water without heavy boots on, we have to make an effort to dive to the bottom of a pool. Zombies might not breath but there will still be pockets of air in their bodies so pretty sure they would wind up just thrashing about near the surface, occasionally sinking and re-surfacing. In water they'd be pretty immobile but still dangerous if you swim past since they could grab you. But I don't see zombies being able to walk along the seabed - it would be a bit too 'pirates of the caribbean'. Not like we are going to see that anyway i don't think. But I know if I was being chased by zombies and water was near I would dive in to get away, it would help you escape at least.

As for the world's population, not even 10% proabably if you guesstimate by the currently outnumbered survivors. I would like to see more survivors though - and not just psychotic, murderous ones either. I know it is for the drama but let's be honest if the world is only full of zombies and the majority of people to survive are the psychos of civilisation, well that sucks big time. I think a lot of decent people with some brains and normal, decent people would also manage to survive (like these in Rick's group) not just the nutters like Merle and The Gov'.

 

I would say from the evidence on the show that there could be far less than 1% survivors by the time the group leaves the farm (at least in rural Georgia). They wandered the whole winter without encountering another car or fortified house (yes people would be hiding, but they should have ran into someone or some evidence of survivors). Even the prison of perhaps 5-600 walkers, there are only five survivors (less than 1%). 1% would mean 100,000 survivors in the state - (and more walkers than the show can really depict without massive CG.)

More math - The largest survivor settlement in the area, Woodbury, has a population of 73. The relevant area (containing Woodbury, the prison and perhaps the farm) is probably approximately three counties or perhaps 1/60th of the state. There are certainly other survivors in the area, but given the Governor's reach and activity, not a lot, lets say another 125 (being very generous). That interpolates to a state population of perhaps 12,000 survivors or about a little more than a tenth of a percent survivors. This is a rural area, but even rural areas in GA are dotted with small towns and farms plus this area can't be too far from Atlanta.

 

One other thing to think about. As the dead started to rise, they attacked those around them. Most of the time that would be first responders, EMTs, paramedics, police, ER doctors, and nurses. This would DRASTICALLY increase the number of people who will die because of lack of first aid and advanced first aid. Meaning, the patient who needs a breathing treatment, a quick and simple treatment, easily done, may die.
Basically the system starts a domino 'for want of a nail' effect.

 

Hi all - just joined to chime in on this conversation. I too was put off by Rick's apparently inaccurate estimate of the population. I can't imagine this was sloppy writing as I've heard some people say, it's just too glaring. At this point I do buy the argument that he was trying to persuade the prisoners to leave.

That said, my general gut, along with Jenner's assessment of the situation, leads me to believe that the human population is almost certainly at a fraction of a percent. If I were to put a number on it, I'd put it somewhere on the low end between .01% and .1%, if we're to believe that Atlanta pretty much reflects the state of other major metropolitan areas. 700,000 - 7,000,000 is an empty world either way.

Also a point to consider is that the surviving populations seems super prone to just killing each other over resources, etc. So, even if one were to escape becoming infected by contact, it seems like there's a pretty good chance that you'll be killed by another survivor in a year or two.

 

Could be right suburbanbeat

My calcs a few messages above came to about .1% and I was being generous. I would believe a rate as low as .05% or about 5,000 people left in all Georgia.